30年美債收益率再破5%，「一切都便宜」的時代落幕了

Original Title: "The 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5%, Marking the End of the 'Everything Is Cheap' Era"

Original Author: Long Yue, Wall Street News

The 30-year Treasury bond yield has once again surpassed 5%, and this time the market's reaction is significantly different from that of 2023—investors are beginning to truly accept the reality of prolonged high interest rates.

Analysis points to a deeper structural shift: the three pillars that have supported the US's low inflation and low interest rates over the past 50 years—cheap capital, cheap labor, and cheap energy—are concurrently unraveling. The direction of AI will be the biggest unknown factor determining future inflation trends.

The 30-year US Treasury bond yield has recently broken 5% again. Rana Foroohar, a columnist for the Financial Times, noted that unlike in 2023 when the yield briefly exceeded 5% and quickly retreated, this time the market's reaction is markedly different—investors seem to finally be accepting a reality: the US is bidding farewell to the era of low interest rates and entering a new phase of more persistent and diversified inflation pressure.

The article cites a recent report from Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk sent to clients, stating, "Investors should prepare their positions for a sustained environment of high interest rates in the short, medium, and long term."

Behind this is a larger structural story: the three key cheap elements that have driven US economic growth over the past 50 years—cheap capital, cheap labor, and cheap energy—are undergoing a simultaneous reversal.

The Half-Century "Cheapness Dividend": How Did It Come About?

The 30-year Treasury bond yield, which dropped from over ten percentage points in the early 1980s to around 1% during the pandemic, this nearly half-century downward trend was not incidental.

It is supported by a complete macroeconomic logic:

Cheap Capital: Decades of globalization and manufacturing technological advancements have suppressed commodity prices; oil-exporting countries have recycled a large amount of petrodollars back to the US, providing ample cheap funds; pension privatization reforms have spurred significant demand for various financial products; global investors have eagerly purchased US bonds because no other country is safer than the US.

Cheap Labor: Outsourcing, the decline of unions, the wave of automation, and the "shareholder-first" corporate culture (heavy financial engineering, light employee investment) have collectively lowered wages, especially for non-college-educated workers, continuously supporting corporate profit margins.

廉價能源：石油美元體系在一定程度上抑制了通脹，全球能源貿易以美元結算，也強化了美元的全球地位。

這三根支柱，共同撐起了美國半個世紀的低通脹、低利率繁榮。

三大支柱，正在同步鬆動

Rana Foroohar 在文章中指出，上述每一個支撐因素，如今都在發生變化。

資本端：每一次美債拍賣，國際買家都在減少而非增加。去全球化和供應鏈回流，短期內將推高商品和服務價格。與此同時，石油美元體系的根基正在被侵蝕。

能源端：中東局勢持續緊張，對亞洲能源進口國衝擊最直接。但從更長遠來看，這反而可能加速亞洲大國在清潔能源領域的佈局——而美國正在退出氣候承諾。這意味著，長期資本流向可能從美國轉向亞洲大國。

勞動力端：近年來，勞動力短缺、大規模罷工（包括汽車製造業的成功維權）、移民限制收緊，以及部分領域（尤其是白領行業）工會成員增長，都推動了工資上漲。但這一趨勢被兩個因素部分抵消：一是企業醫療保險成本上升，企業傾向於以壓低工資來對沖；二是人工智能的衝擊。

還有一個慢變量：債務、地緣政治與民粹主義

除了上述顯性因素，還有幾個「慢變量」：不斷攀升的政府債務、地緣政治摩擦加劇，以及民粹主義的蔓延。

這些風險的共同效果是：貸款人要求更高的風險溢價，才願意把錢借出去——尤其是借出去好幾年的那種。

這直接推高了長端利率，也就是 30 年期美債收益率。

AI：救世主還是新的通脹源？

在所有變量中，人工智能的走向最難判斷，但影響可能最深遠。

Rana Foroohar 提出了兩種截然不同的情景：

樂觀情景：AI 的生產力效益廣泛擴散至各行各業和個人，創造新的就業和收入來源。耶魯大學預算實驗室的模型顯示，在這一情景下，美國國家債務將大幅下降，通脹也隨之回落。

悲觀情境：AI 僅是企業裁員、壓縮成本、擴大利潤的工具，而 AI 基礎設施建設本身（大量消耗晶片、土地、水和電力）反而製造了新的通膨壓力，淨效果是推高而非壓低成本。政府還將被迫出手救助被替代的工人，債務反而上升。

目前，AI 巨頭們正在大量吞噬房地產、晶片、水資源和電力，已經在推高這些資源在整體經濟中的價格。最終結果如何，還需要數年時間才能看清。

投資者面臨的真正挑戰

文章的結論直接而清醒：大多數市場參與者，職業生涯的全部時間都是在「廉價時代」度過的。他們的直覺、模型和預期，都是在低利率環境下校準的。

而現在，這個環境正在改變。

「預期慣性」是一股強大的力量——2023 年 30 年期美債收益率突破 5% 後，很多人以為只是短暫異常，很快就會回落。但這一次，市場的反應已經不同了。

調整，意味著放棄舊的預期。對於習慣了低利率的投資者來說，這不是一件容易的事。

原文連結

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